Monday, March 21, 2011

There's a Time to Buy, and There's a Time to... uhhh.. Buy!

   You know the proverb: "There is a time for everything under the sun..." Well, technically, it's not a Proverb; it's out of Ecclesiastes... but that's not the point. The point is: It's time to buy! Yes, Real Estate! Seriously... what are you waiting for?


   I'll admit, some of the headlines are distrubing... last week Japan was hit with a major earthquake, and they have nuclear reactors very close to meltdown. That is a bit unnerving. Gas prices had been going up, employment hasn't improved much over the last year, and home prices are still in the tank in many places in the country. But, that said, I don't know anything about nuclear containment, I certainly can't do much about gas prices, but what I do know is that low home prices mean I am buying. I think I am going to buy two homes in the next three months. And as I was thinking that, I was thinking, "Other folks need to be doing this, too!" I only have so much money, so there will be a few really good deals out there.. go get 'em!

    Let's focus... and if you have ADD like me, that's quite a task. But let's try anyway: 1. Home prices are low. Okay, got it. 2. Rental rates are going up! That is good. 3. If I buy today, I will have cash flow. That's very good. 4. Even if home prices drop more, I will still cash flow. Huh? Oh, yeah, baby... I cannot lose, even if I do lose a little, I still won't be losing. So, I f I buy for a long enough term, I will profit short term (monthly cash flow); I will grow equity (tenant pays down mortgage) and as long as I do not sell while the market is down, I will more than likely make some money on appreciation! So, why haven't I bought already??? Look, squirrel...!!

   So, now your thinking, "Why does Danny T get to have all the fun?!?! I wanna buy a house too!" Shortly after that, a little bit of fear starts creeping up, provided you don't get distracted, and you start wondering, "But how is it really done? How do I find the right property? What loan is right for me? How much do I put down?" Here is the salesman part of me kicking in: Gary Keller's book, The Millionaire Real Estate Investor has the key models any investor will use when buying real estate to gain net worth. (Just to clear this up, an "investor" is anyone who invests... you don't have to buy a hundred properties... the models are the same if you buy one or a thousand.) If you decide to buy a property to gain net worth, you are an investor. (Or, will be...)

   First things first: Get educated. Read MREI, and talk to your local lender and a real estate professional familiar with investing... preferrably a KW agent. Email me if you need a referral... I know a lot of Realtors... like, almost 80,000 realtors. Oh, and you can get th e book at www.MillinoaireSystems.com

   I gotta go write up an offer. I just found this cool duplex in South Austin... see ya! Let me know what you buy!

Danny T
KW Publishing

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

You Got to Know When to Fold 'em...

Whispered in the corners of all real estate, mortgage, and title offices, is the idea of "walking away" from your home.  It's an ugly idea, and no one ever wanted to be in such a situation that makes the "walking away" look like a good idea, but here we are.  What has clearly become the worst housing market since perhaps the Great Depression, record numbers of foreclosures and short sales have pressed the housing prices downward.  Granted some areas have felt less impact than others, but for those families and individuals who are faced with foreclosure, the impact is immense.

Let's break it down:  Many Homeowners owe more money to the mortgage bank than what the home is worth.  In Texas, it is common to owe just a bit too much once the real estate commissions and closing costs have been calculated, that offers have to be rejected, only for the home to be foreclosed and sold for even less money.  Recently, I had an offer on a home that was $5000 under what he need to break even at a sale price of $129,000.  We couldn't work it out, the bank refused to negotiate, and eight months later, the home sold for $102,000.  Nobody wins except the more recent buyer.  The Seller did everything he could to make it work, but he had no money left and just couldn't make it happen.  With late fees and later, attorney fees added on, he now has a very large judgment against his name.  And this is after trying to work it out with the bank.

So, the discussion comes to this point: If you see that in the very near future, paying the payment on a home that you owe more than it is worth will become impossible, and there is no way you can sell it, should you stop making the payment now?  To try to negotiate with the bank now seems to make sense, but the mortgage companies have made it clear, they will not negotiate a short sale if you are current on your payments.  In order to get out of your home on a short sale (a negotiate pay-off that is less than what you owe) you have to be in financial straights.  You have to be behind on your payments, and be able to prove that you simply have no money.  If you just stop making your payments, but you have money in the bank, they will not negotiate with you.  I understand the banks do not want to be taken advantage of, but the system they have come up with is only making matters worse.  To be able to work with them, you have to keep making your payments until you are flat broke... then they will work with you... I am not so sure this helps anyone.

Since the bank won't negotiate with you, you have very few options.  You can try a friendly foreclosure, which is when you call them and tell them you are sending them the keys and that you are moving out.  They will try to get you to do a "loan modification" which frankly doesn't really help anyone.  You will still owe more than it is worth, and essentially will owe even more once it is all over.  Trying to rent it out will more than likely only prolong the inevitable.  Hitting the lottery is your best bet, but that is almost as big a long shot as the bank forgiving your debt. 


"Walking Away", unfortunately, is beginning to look like a viable option.  I am not saying anyone should do this, but I think it is important to be honest about the facts and the implications thereof.  The premise is this: you know you cannot continue making payments for much longer; you know you cannot sell the home for what you owe, you know you will have to move sooner or later, and sooner would be better because your credit isn't destroyed yet, and you still have some money in the bank.  If you rented a home now for less money per month to cut your expenses and walked away from the mortgage, you would be able to keep feeding your family, keep your vehicles, your job, and most of your dignity... You will definitely lose about 350 points on your credit score, and lose your ability to borrow any money for the next 3-5 years, maybe longer, and you will likely end up with a judgment for the difference between what you owed and what they sold it for.  Add to this that the bank would begin foreclosure sooner, so there would be less late fees, attorney fees, etc... which could make that judgment lower than if you wait until your world falls completely apart.

The bottom line is that there are no good choices.  And it is no ones fault.  The housing market crashed.  Yes, I have read the books and the blogs about how the banker's greed, or the government's greed, or the Democrats or the Republicans did this or that... I have heard, "Well, if the banks wouldn't have loaned the money to them, they wouldn't be in foreclosure!"  Nobody made anyone borrow money... no one forced a pen into anybody's hand.  The subprime loans were horrible, the secondary mortgage market was inflated, and prices of homes were skyrocketing!  Poop happens... That's the beauty, and the bitter, of our free market system.  So, here we are.  What counts is what we do today, and tomorrow.

That's my two cents... Let me know what you think.

Monday, May 4, 2009

The Wonderful World of Realty

The stock market has always been crazy and unpredictable, at least to those of us who see it as a mystery and pretty much leave that arena to the pros... The Real Estate Market has, to some degree, prior to 2007, been somewhat predictable.. at least in my view. But, it is a brave new world...

From a local perspective, predicting what will happen is based on many, many different factors: Jobs, global economy, people's reaction to the global economy... etc... The local number of foreclosures, while lower than most of the country, still has an impact on the value of homes. The global economy affects us when local companies reduce their workforce, or just leave... And the trickle down from such events certainly reduces the amount of cash people have, and thus affects whether they will buy a home right now...

But I am going to say, again, that I still think the main issue is the mortgage industry. Mortgages are tougher to get. Therefore, less buyers. Supply and demand always rules, so less Buyers, more houses, lower prices. In the last few weeks, though, I have seen an increase in activity. It is possible that the bottom has been hit and the turn is occurring. My personal opinion is that locally, we have seen the bottom (in general) but there likely will not be any real appreciation for some time. Do you still buy now?! That depends on your overall goals, but buying is better than renting, as long as you will hold the property for 3 years or more, or if you buy it really, really well. (Factor in the $8000 tax credit -- that may make it worthwhile too...) But the bottom line is everyone needs to look at their credit score and get to work. The goal is 750 or better. Cut up the credit cards if you do not have the discipline to not use them. If you are disciplined, pay them off each month. I use one card for business, one card for my rental properties, one card for personal, and one for gas. But, I pay them each off... each month. That helps me in my bookkeeping.... and my credit score is very close to 800.

If you are not sure of your credit score, the services out there on the Internet are helpful, but not completely accurate. The best bet is to talk to a local loan officer who is willing to work with you to get your score up. You need someone experienced and knowledgeable about what makes the score go up. My Loan Officer, several years ago, took my score from a 705 to a 790 simply by working through the negative issues and helping me clear them up. (I had a medical bill that my insurance co didn't pay -- long, but common story.)

So, I say again: "Cash is King". But for those of us who do not have a few hundred thousand laying around, "Credit Score is Queen!" So go get to work... spend wisely. Get help if you need it... It is a crazy, wonderful world out there!

Visit my website for more local information on San Antonio, Texas and surrounding areas. www.DannyTHomes.com

Monday, April 27, 2009

A Land of Milk and Honey

In Biblical times, flowing with milk and honey meant very prosperous. If you are unfamiliar with the Bible, that just sounds weird. I mean, I went to HEB (that's our local grocery conglomerate) and the milk aisle was over 50' long with at least six brands of milk and every variation of milk you can imagine... (I am just curious.. SOY? I know some people have to drink that, but...) I digress... the honey aisle... lot's o' choices...

So, America is flowing... why is the economy so crazy? Follow the money, as they say on TV. (Yes, I am a Law and Order fan) Only this time, it has to do with money NOT flowing. The log jam is the institution of lending. Here is how I see it:
Banks lent money to anyone and everyone for about 4 years. If you couldn't qualify, they changed the rules so you could. Everyone was approved. And in typical American fashion, when the poop hit the fan, the pendulum swung way hard the other direction. Lenders now will only lend if you don't need the money. You have to have a 720 score or better to get a face-to-face with a loan officer. After the blood test and the rectal exam, you still might get the loan if you clearly do not need a loan. I even heard of one commercial deal where the Buyer was approved for One Million bucks if they made a deposit of One and a half million into the lending institutions coffers... crazy...

And here we are. Many owners have those creative loans on homes they really couldn't afford. They can't refinance - they don't qualify. So they are stuck. They have to tighten their belts just to stay financially afloat. Others, though not as many as the media would have you believe, simply quit and let the banks foreclose... some do work-arounds or short sales. And of course, savvy buyers are out there snatching up the deals. At least, the buyers who can qualify. And, in a world of tight credit, Cash is king.

On the ground, as a Realtor in San Antonio Texas, I am seeing that prices are pressed down simply by the mentality that every deal should be a fantastic deal. Some very good homes are not selling simply because enough homes in their neighborhood sold cheap, due to foreclosures, or pressure to sell. Relocation companies lower their prices because they simply can't hold onto the homes forever... These are the best of times, these are the worst of times. It all depends if you are buying or selling.

FHA & VA have now stiffened their rules as well: 620 minimum FICO score. And I am seeing many more VA loans then what I had seen in quite some time (I have been helping folks with real estate for over 15 years). But even then, if your score is 620 or higher, prepare yourself for a thorough probing. Wash up.

I have more local info on my site at http:DannyTHomes.com . You can get a Market Snapshot of your home in our area, or if you are buying, set up an auto-search for deals. There is also info on schools, crime, etc.. Take a look. Let me know if I can help.

Until next time - keep your scores up!

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Once Upon a Time...

It is April already! OMG!! (oh my gosh, for those who are not text savvy...)

This has been the most chaotic real estate market I have ever seen - as a Realtor for 15 years and, really, as an adult. (Some people who know me well may contest that.. the "adult" thing...) The stock market has been up and down, and down, and down, and up... If you like Roller Coasters, this has been one heck of a ride.

I have been reading the news from all over the country, and the concensus seems to be that we are either going to get worse, or going to get better, or stay the same. Some people are buckling in for a rougher ride, and some have them hands held high, screaming at the top of their lungs "Weeeeeeeeee! It's time to Buy.....!"

So, what is the story? What do we do? Here's my rendition of the drama:

Once upon a time, in a land not so far away, a fairly religious group of people decided they did not want to be ruled over by a guy wearing a white curly wig and knickers. So, they threw some tea in the ocean and chose to drink coffee from then on. A lot of the men from across the "pond" who would have never had rose to political power were able to because, in this strange new land, it didn't matter if you were a duke, knight, or other assorted royalties. All men were equal, and all men could participate in this great experiment (unless you were a woman or black... but that's another story.) So they thought some great thoughts, drafted a few documents, and won a war.

After some time, when people forgot what oppression and misuse of power was like, men less honorable manipulated their way into power. They then voted laws into effect that favored themselves, and their friends, and their biases. They forgot they were supposed to serve, and forgot what it was to put others first. Right became wrong, and minority became majority. Justice, who was already blind, lost both arms and legs in a terrible accident called "Tolerance". God, and those who believe He existed, were asked to sit down and be quiet. And they did.

Oh, times were good though, and it really seemed that everyone would have their own home, health care, and plenty of vacation time. Then some very, very bad men decided to fly airplanes into some buildings. The buildings fell, and so did the stock market. The men in power decided they couldn't fix the buildings, but they could fix the market. A little tweaking here, and a little tweaking there... and recovery was on its way. Everyone was entitled to their own home, even if they couldn't afford it, so some rules were overlooked, and pressure was applied, and next thing you know, credit was available to anyone with a breath! Oh what fun!

But, as many stories go, it was too good to be true. All of the tweaking came to a head, and many of the lies became known... as lies often do. Banks began to close, money was no longer available, and markets plummeted. The "Good Men" in power decided a little more tweaking should do the job... and so the tweaking continues. The story continues, with the end nowhere in sight.

>>>>
This was just for fun... I will post more on my thoughts soon... I really won't wait 5 months next time. :-)

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

So, What Now?

I will admit that I truly fear the Obamanomics of the next four years...but, it is what it is. McCain lost, and we now have a new president, and we need to make the best of it. If you were for Obama, congrats... Time will tell.

So, what next? Let's get back to work. Let's get back to buying and selling, and living, and loving. This is America, and whether we like the president or not is irrelevant. We are Americans and we agree to disagree and move on. We get back to business and go after our goals. There is no room for hatred, angst, or regret. We should pray for our leaders, hope the very best for them, and then, keep an eye on them.

I will say this for all to see: I will admit I was wrong if Obama does a good job. I will watch his administration, pray for him and all of his staff, and hope that he implements good ideas and sound policies. And, after all is said and done, if we prosper, and taxes do not go up, I will admit that I was wrong. I will begin trying to see the "center" a bit more clearly, and seek to understand.

The following has nothing to do with real estate....

I will also say this regarding the social issues of Homosexual rights and abortion - he is dead wrong. I have no problem with any person living they way they want to within the law. If someone chooses to pursue relationships with the same sex, that is their decision. But I do not have to agree that it is normal, or equal to the way we were design to relate sexually. Homosexuality is a deviate choice just as much as pedophilia and adultery, and alcoholism... it is a choice that a person makes, and it is a deviate choice. And they will face God someday... that is their choice. If someone were to ask me my opinion, I will express it. But I also know some homosexuals and I get along fine with them and I care about them. It is not my place to pass judgment. I am called to love all people, and pray for them, and be available to tell them about Jesus, if the opportunity arises.

As For abortion - that is dead wrong - literally. Life begins at conception. It is not arguable.

The reason I bring this up is because I really do not think that you can simply separate social issues from economic ones. If we believe the Old Testament, and I do, we see that God judged His people when they turned from Him. He allowed ungodly leaders to take His Chosen People into captivity and be destroyed - the good with the bad... Some were spared, but many people suffered incredibly. America has been very prosperous, and I believe that we have decided as a whole that we do not need God butting into our business. It is possible that Obama is part of the judgment... we may suffer greatly due to our rejection of holiness and righteousness. Prosperity has made us selfish and arrogant.

Well.. that is enough ranting... I really hope I am wrong, and I hope Obama makes right decisions and the country is blessed. Either way, I am going back to work, and I will keep praying for prosperity AND righteousness. I hope you will all join me in that task.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Fall of America?

That sounds pretty dramatic... I know. But, if you are honest, and if you study history, you will see some disturbing parallels to other Empires that have fallen. Namely, Rome. When Rome fell, they were at their largest expanse, had vast amounts of capital, and saw no end in sight. They had no need for God, and basically, asked Him to leave. So, God did. And without His blessing, the Empire of Rome collapsed. From lack of morals, lack of direction and purpose, lack of meaning. Rome was engulfed in "self". So, the Empire essentially imploded.

If we take an honest look at American politics, we will see similar "lackings". Morals? Not to be found on Capital Hill. Direction and purpose? You got it: Self. Every politician on both sides of the aisle are serving self. Sure, they talk a good talk, but the evidence is very clear that the vast majority of the people we pay to "serve" us are really serving only themselves. There are some that line up with our own agenda better, so they appear to be less self-serving, but the bottom line is that there are very few "public servants" left.

Machiavelli wrote over 400 years ago about this: A "Representative Republic" is the best and the worst type of government. Essentially, he said that, in theory, a Democratic state such as ours now is (supposedly) would eventually implode. His theory was based on the fact that when "public servants" can manipulate laws to improve their status, and decide how much to pay themselves, and all that entails, that eventually (he actually estimated 200 years) those in power would gain too much power and the end result would be revolution. That is why he preferred the Government of "The Prince". He imagined a person who was in charge of everything, and if that person were truly virtuous, there would be a perfect state. Of course, he admitted the likelihood of this was remote...

To the point: America is not unshakable, as we have recently seen. But it also seems America is arrogant and unwilling to do what it takes to correct its course. Here is what I truly believe will save us:
1. Let God back in. Yes, the Bible... let people freely believe what Jesus has said and let them talk about it at work, at school, and in the government without mocking them, firing them or suspending them.
2. Cut by at least 50% all the pay for all congressman, senators, and everyone else in public service (not at the local level - for the most part, they are underpaid.) I mean cut their pay, their benefits, and their budgets. This way, only those who truly want to serve because they love America will WANT to serve. Don't make it so lucrative.
3. Cut Government spending drastically. Cut out welfare except for only the truly disabled. Put a limit on the time anyone able-bodied can receive any funds - down to 90 days per calendar year.
4. Provide an alternative income tax - a flat tax any person can pay instead of reporting every single penny spent... If someone wants to continue doing their taxes as it is today, fine.. but it may make more sense to give them an alternative.. If I was told just pay 20% of my total income instead of working all those hours to provide all the documentation, I'd pay the 20% and forget about it.
5. Prohibit government from borrowing any more money. They need to "live with in their means." The interest payments alone that will be saved would be incredible.
6. Punish Media reporters who lie. (I am not really sure how that could be done.. they all are biased... I just was hoping...)

To close, I will say that I am voting Republican this year. I believe strongly that Obama's liberal fiscal plans will push America into even a deeper tailspin. I am unhappy with John McCain, but when you can only choose between two, this year, the choice is incredibly obvious. Oh, don't believe the liberal media -- they have been wrong three elections in a row...